Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has boosted anxiety and therefore action on energy security and dependence on oil and gas. Sanctioning Russian oil and gas imports is an opportunity to replace fossil fuels with low or no carbon alternatives, an opportunity that is being taken. And renewables like wind and solar are by their nature local and therefore good for energy security (though with notable exceptions). Charles Hendry, Ellen Wald, Olga Khakova, … [Read more...]
Gulf States are investing in Carbon Capture to maintain Hydrocarbon business
The Gulf region wants to maintain their substantial revenues from hydrocarbons in a decarbonising world. One way to do that is to invest in carbon capture, to make cleaner and more marketable fossil fuel products. Megren Almutairi and Karen Young at CGEP look at their current plans and future prospects. Right now, about 10% of CO2 captured globally is in the industrial facilities of the Gulf States. Their national oil companies boast some of the … [Read more...]
Deadly loophole: third countries are refining Russian oil and exporting it to EU and G7 perfectly legally
There is a loophole in the sanctions imposed by EU/G7 countries that prohibit the importation of Russian crude oil and oil products. Third countries not imposing sanctions can import Russian crude, refine it into oil products and legally export them to price cap coalition countries (PCC). An analysis by CREA reveals that €8.5bn of PCC imports of oil products in the 13 months to the end of 2023 were made from Russian crude. Also, in 2023, there … [Read more...]
EU’s fossil fuel CO2 emissions drop to levels last seen in the 1960s
The EU’s CO2 emissions from fossil fuels (including power generation, industry and transport) dropped 8% in 2023 year-on-year, reaching levels last seen in the early 1960s, reveals an analysis by CREA. More than half of that decline came from an impressive 25% year-on-year reduction in CO2 emissions from power generation. The cleaner electricity mix is thanks to the continuous rise of wind and solar as well as a rebound in hydropower and nuclear. … [Read more...]
Five major outcomes from COP28 (and next year’s is in Azerbaijan, another oil and gas producer)
Mark Maslin, Priti Parikh and Simon Chin-Yee at UCL lay out the five major outcomes from the latest COP28 climate summit in the UAE, a major oil and gas producer. Though in the run up there was great hope for a new climate agreement on the phasing out of all fossil fuels, that never happened. Phase out turned into a “transition away from.” The authors note that the first ever mention of fossil fuels in an international climate agreement was only … [Read more...]
The E-bike revolution is already underway (in developing countries): 280m micro-vehicles on the road and rising
While we’re all still waiting for the tipping point for EVs, it might have already happened for e-bikes – just not in rich countries. Car-owning nations will always struggle to switch to micro-mobility. But in China and other developing nations, owning a moped or bicycle is very common, so the switch is much easier, explain Muhammad Rizwan Azhar and Waqas Uzair at Edith Cowan University. It’s why, globally by 2022, there were over 280m electric … [Read more...]
Most investors still aren’t factoring in climate risks. Oil and Gas firms face virtually no additional borrowing costs
Extreme weather events are becoming more frequent due to climate change. At the same time, global decarbonisation is changing the economics of the energy sector. Yet credit ratings agencies aren’t consistently factoring in the risk of climate-related change into borrowing costs, explains Matt Burke at the University of Oxford. For example, oil and gas firms are facing virtually no additional borrowing costs. It’s a similar story for governments … [Read more...]
Europe is updating its price cap sanctions on Russian oil. How to make them work?
The EC has put forward proposals for tightening the implementation of a price cap on Russian oil exports. Brian O’Toole, Olga Khakova and Charles Lichfield at the Atlantic Council and Tomasz Wlostowski at EU Strategies review the performance of the price cap sanctions one year on from their implementation, and give recommendations for how to make them work better. Though most observers agree that the cap has limited export income for Russia this … [Read more...]
Cost vs Resilience: Europe’s sourcing strategy will shape the regional Hydrogen economy
The upcoming EU Hydrogen Bank pilot auction and trilogue discussions are focussing minds on the future of hydrogen. Jonas Lotze and Massimo Moser at TransnetBW and Janina Erb, Roman Flatau, Felix Greven and Max Labmayr at d-fine present the results of their modelling of two hydrogen sourcing scenarios: "Global Market" (GM) where the import of hydrogen into Europe is unrestricted, and "Energy Resilient Europe" (ERE) where almost all hydrogen is … [Read more...]
China’s Belt and Road Initiative is now building more Renewables, less Coal
Energy has always made up the majority of investments and construction deals signed through China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Until very recently these investments were dominated by fossil fuel projects. But in the first half of this year, over 40% of BRI energy projects announced were wind and solar, with 22% each for gas and oil, and zero for coal projects. The reasons include China’s stated commitment to clean energy, avoiding the risk … [Read more...]
Fossil producer UAE to host COP28: what are Gulf states doing to decarbonise?
COP28 in November is being hosted by the United Arab Emirates (UAE), a major oil and gas producer. The COP President will be Sultan Al Jaber, the CEO of ADNOC, one of the world’s biggest oil companies. It’s attracted heavy criticism from many quarters. Robin Mills at the Center on Global Energy Policy reviews the contradictions inherent in a leading fossil producing nation hosting the world’s most important decarbonisation forum. The Gulf states … [Read more...]
Oil & Gas business is fatally flawed: Russia-Ukraine only delayed the relentless decline in prices
The oil and gas producers have made windfalls off the back of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the consequent spikes in prices. But the return of prices to normal levels is re-emphasising the flaw in their business model, explains Clark Williams-Derry at IEEFA. The cost of producing the fossil fuels can only go up: the low hanging fruit was picked long ago, and finding and extracting new deposits gets more and more expensive. So do labour costs. … [Read more...]
Germany to ramp up the decarbonisation of Buildings Heating from Jan 1st 2024. How?
Decarbonising heating is a major challenge for any country. Germany’s Building Energy Act (GEG) means that from 2024 every newly installed heating system, in new or existing buildings, must operate with a minimum of 65% renewable energy. Concerns over the costs to customers (installing new and expensive systems, or paying a penalty for fossil heating) has led to intense debates, hence the new law includes a range of subsidies, bonuses, discounted … [Read more...]
Carbon Capture rates of 60% sound impressive. But rising carbon prices could still make you commercially unviable
Mainstream scenarios state the unavoidable need for continued use of fossils through to 2050. For the world to stay within its carbon budget, that means the unavoidable need for carbon capture and plugging “fugitive” leaks. Chris Bataille at the Center on Global Energy Policy flags up the danger that new CCS projects with seemingly impressive capture rates of up to 60% may nevertheless become commercially unviable as carbon prices rise: that … [Read more...]
Russia’s oil export revenue rebounded in March–April. Why aren’t the EU, U.S. and partners enforcing the price cap?
The Price Cap Coalition (PCC) - composed of Australia, Canada, the EU, Japan, the UK, and the U.S. – are failing to either enforce or lower the cap on Russian oil exports as promised, says a report summarised here from the Centre for Research in Energy and Clean Air (CREA). Had it done so, Russian revenues could have been slashed by €22bn (37%) since December by lowering the price cap for crude oil to $30/barrel and revising the caps for oil … [Read more...]
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