We need to cut global methane emissions from fossil fuels by 75% by 2030 to be on target to limit warming to 1.5°C. That equates to 90 Mt of the current total of 120 Mt of annual fossil fuel methane emissions. The IEA says 80 Mt can be avoided through the deployment of known and existing technologies, often at low – or even negative – cost. And the 75% cut needs $170bn in spending to 2030, a very achievable sum given it represents less than 5% of … [Read more...]
The European Green Deal isn’t coping with a turbulent world. What must change?
The European Green Deal was not designed to cope with the extraordinary series of overlapping crises the world has been facing. Though the EU has ultimately been reinforced through crises, that may not continue, explain Marc-Antoine Eyl-Mazzega and Diana-Paula Gherasim at IFRI who summarise their study “How Can the Green Deal Adapt to a Brutal World?” Costs are rising and investment is not keeping pace. Dependence on China and the burst of … [Read more...]
Two years on, how is Russia’s invasion of Ukraine driving energy security and decarbonisation?
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has boosted anxiety and therefore action on energy security and dependence on oil and gas. Sanctioning Russian oil and gas imports is an opportunity to replace fossil fuels with low or no carbon alternatives, an opportunity that is being taken. And renewables like wind and solar are by their nature local and therefore good for energy security (though with notable exceptions). Charles Hendry, Ellen Wald, Olga Khakova, … [Read more...]
Deadly loophole: third countries are refining Russian oil and exporting it to EU and G7 perfectly legally
There is a loophole in the sanctions imposed by EU/G7 countries that prohibit the importation of Russian crude oil and oil products. Third countries not imposing sanctions can import Russian crude, refine it into oil products and legally export them to price cap coalition countries (PCC). An analysis by CREA reveals that €8.5bn of PCC imports of oil products in the 13 months to the end of 2023 were made from Russian crude. Also, in 2023, there … [Read more...]
EU Elections 2024: the Green Deal can be an emblem of what Europe is for
It’s a European election year, which means all of us - not just the politicians and policy-makers – need to get our heads around what the EU is for. SĂ©bastien Treyer at the IDDRI lays out the challenges faced in a moment of climate crises, war and high inflation, when voters are prone to polarisation and manipulation. He asks the difficult questions over economic security, inequalities between Member States, global influence, engagement with … [Read more...]
Can the EU and US end their dependence on Russia’s nuclear energy industry?
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine resulted in the EU and the US quickly imposing sanctions on imports of Russian oil and gas. But sanctions on Russia’s nuclear exports have been far lighter because alternatives are hard to find. Ihor Moshenets at the Central European University takes a deep dive into the current situation. He takes a close look at the EU and the US’s actual level of dependence, as well as moves by both to develop and enlarge their own … [Read more...]
Poland’s Coal-to-Nuclear plans move forward with U.S. partners
Poland sees nuclear as ideal for replacing its coal, explain Matt Bowen and Sagatom Saha at the Center on Global Energy Policy. Though Poland's renewables like wind and solar have grown rapidly in the last few years, reactors can provide dispatchable heat and power in the way that coal currently does. Poland is extremely reliant on coal, generating over 70% of its electricity and giving it the second-largest coal fleet in the EU. Hence, in … [Read more...]
EU Energy Outlook to 2060: power prices and revenues predicted for wind, solar, gas, hydrogen + more
Huangluolun Zhou, Elena Dahlem and Alex Schmitt at Energy Brainpool present their updated “EU Energy Outlook 2060”, modelling how the European energy system will undergo major changes in the coming decades while continuing to guarantee a secure supply and meet its climate targets. What do these developments mean for power prices, revenue potential and risks for solar PV and wind? The two main scenarios are “Central” and “GoHydrogen” for the EU 27 … [Read more...]
How to manage price risk as the EU shifts from Russian Gas to Renewables
Europe is phasing out Russian gas and replacing it with more renewables. That means there will be greater demand variability and a resulting impact on European spot gas prices. The problem is that long-term contracting, the traditional way for buyers to mitigate spot price risk, is incompatible with Europe’s climate objectives of reducing long term consumption of gas. Kong Chyong at the Center on Global Energy Policy proposes alternative policy … [Read more...]
Europe is updating its price cap sanctions on Russian oil. How to make them work?
The EC has put forward proposals for tightening the implementation of a price cap on Russian oil exports. Brian O’Toole, Olga Khakova and Charles Lichfield at the Atlantic Council and Tomasz Wlostowski at EU Strategies review the performance of the price cap sanctions one year on from their implementation, and give recommendations for how to make them work better. Though most observers agree that the cap has limited export income for Russia this … [Read more...]
Oil & Gas business is fatally flawed: Russia-Ukraine only delayed the relentless decline in prices
The oil and gas producers have made windfalls off the back of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the consequent spikes in prices. But the return of prices to normal levels is re-emphasising the flaw in their business model, explains Clark Williams-Derry at IEEFA. The cost of producing the fossil fuels can only go up: the low hanging fruit was picked long ago, and finding and extracting new deposits gets more and more expensive. So do labour costs. … [Read more...]
Though the price shocks hurt, Renewables installed between 2021-23 saved Europe €100bn
According to the IEA, without the solar and wind capacity additions made in 2021-23 Europe’s energy costs would have been €100bn higher in those three years, as prices spiked due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the unexpected drop in output from nuclear and hydro. That money saved is another reason why the ramp up of renewables is so important, explains Joe Myers writing for the World Economic Forum who summarises the IEA data. Natural gas … [Read more...]
Can we expect Gas price volatility and spikes this winter? Why?
Europe has done well in pivoting away from Russian gas imports. After painful energy prices rises in 2022 they have fallen steadily this year. LNG imports and the infrastructure to support them is growing. And Europe’s gas storage levels hit 90% capacity three months ahead of the November target. But the challenge is far from over, explains Michael Bradshaw at Warwick Business School. European gas prices remain 50% above their pre-invasion … [Read more...]
Nuclear power capacity is growing globally. Where, how and why
Ewan Thomson at the World Economic Forum summarises the state of nuclear power worldwide. In 2020 it made up 10% of global electricity generation, more than all the wind and solar PV combined. It’s the second-largest source of low-emissions electricity. But many advanced countries are no longer backing nuclear, citing safety and cost concerns, and instead are pushing the growing number of alternative clean energy technologies. Nevertheless, … [Read more...]
Russia’s war has exposed France and Germany’s energy policy differences. Can it also bring them together?
France and Germany combined account for 45% of EU GDP and 40% of energy consumption. No wonder they are the most influential EU members. But the Russia-induced energy crisis has forced both Paris and Berlin to expose and admit the differences in their national energy strategies, and that has made a search for a unified voice for Europe’s ambitious climate targets much harder to achieve, explain Camille Lafrance and Benjamin Wehrmann at CLEW. … [Read more...]
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